First title chance for Kimi Antonelli in Austin? Here’s what Toto Wolff says

He is just 20 years old and is very likely to be the next Formula 1 world champion: Kimi Antonelli. The Mercedes driver is having a truly impressive season, leaving everyone else in his wake. And at the next Grand Prix, he’ll have his first chance to mathematically secure his maiden world title. If he does, he’ll become the youngest F1 world champion of all time. The current record-holder is Sebastian Vettel, who was 23 years and 134 days old.

With six races officially remaining until the end of the season (more on that in a moment!), Antonelli has a 102-point lead over his team-mate George Russell. With six Grands Prix to go, a maximum of 150 points are still up for grabs. There are no more sprint races.

How Antonelli could become F1 World Champion in Austin

The following scenario would be required for Antonelli to clinch the world title as early as Austin: a win for Antonelli, George Russell finishing no higher than ninth, and Lewis Hamilton finishing no higher than fifth. This means it will take not only a strong weekend from Antonelli, but also a bit of bad luck for his rivals.

How will the F1 season finale unfold?

There is, however, still a small question mark hanging over this calculation: quite a few people doubt that six races will actually take place. The season finale is scheduled for Abu Dhabi, with a race in Qatar planned beforehand. As is well known, the global political situation has already led to the cancellation of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in the spring and the rescheduling of the Bahrain Grand Prix from April to October and from Bahrain to Malaysia. So what if the mathematical scenario changes due to a race being cancelled?

Officially, Formula 1 is still planning for the finale in the Middle East, as CEO Stefano Domenicali recently reaffirmed. At the same time, however, work is underway on an alternative at Imola. That would mean a single race on the Abu Dhabi date (6 December), leaving just five GPs remaining. Plan A is to hold six races. But not everyone in the paddock believes that will happen.

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After the race in Singapore, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff was asked whether it might be bad for the sport to head into a potentially title-deciding race with all these question marks. The Austrian joked: “You’re all so negative,” but then added: “I haven’t looked at it from that perspective yet. Because at the moment, I’m thinking more about how many points are still up for grabs. I keep reminding myself that this is motor racing and that crazy things have happened before.”

World Championship title in Austin? Not a very likely scenario

Wolff said – admittedly shortly after the Grand Prix: “I haven’t even looked at the points yet; it would probably require George and Lewis to retire. So that’s not a very likely scenario. But the aim is to pick up points, not to lose too many points to the others, and perhaps to make up ground on Lewis, as we did today – which wasn’t exactly expected.” Antonelli finished third in Singapore, whilst Lewis Hamilton was only sixth. “And that brings him closer. Whether it’ll be Mexico or Brazil or even later, we’ll have to wait and see. At the moment, everyone’s saying that Qatar and Abu Dhabi are going ahead. So let’s assume there are still six races to go, not four.”