Column on the MotoGP title race: Who will be celebrating in the end?

The final season of the 1,000cc bikes is racing towards its climax – with more excitement and more potential world champions than in recent years, probably even more than ever before. And certainly more than in the modern four-stroke era of MotoGP.

The fortunes of the top riders – five, or perhaps six, or even seven if you cast the net a little wider – are interwoven like a tapestry. Sometimes one has a good weekend, sometimes another has a bad one, and the points standings shift once again.

If one were to resort to clichés, one might say: ‘Nobody wants to win this World Championship.’ Of course, the opposite is true. Everyone wants to win it.

Just to recap: after 13 of 22 races, with a maximum of 333 points still up for grabs, seven riders are separated by just 70 points. Purely mathematically, and with a run of good results – as well as a bit of bad luck for the others – any one of them could take the crown.

Aprilia were dominant at the start of the season, but setbacks followed

The shifting balance of power has given some riders a boost, only to knock them back again. The early dominance of Aprilia rider Marco Bezzecchi was undone by a series of bitter setbacks, one of which – and possibly more than one – was entirely of his own making.

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11.09.2026 - 08:55

Schaffte es in Aragon in beiden Rennen auf Platz 3: Marco Bezzecchi

Foto: Gold and Goose

Early misfortune for Marc Márquez on the Ducati has spectacularly turned on its head, resulting in some of the best races of his illustrious career. Only Marc has managed to secure the maximum 37 points from a sprint and GP victory on more than one occasion. Three times, in fact. But then comes a weekend like the British Grand Prix after the summer break, with 9th and 7th places – and suddenly a note of concern creeps in amongst the triumphant fanfare.

Only one other rider managed the maximum points haul: 2024 World Champion Jorge Martin – and even he only did so once. The Spanish Aprilia rider left the most recent Grand Prix in Aragon with a lead over Márquez that had shrunk to just 19 points.

Each of the title contenders has experienced major highs and lows. Championship leader Martin spectacularly failed to score any points on two occasions in Catalonia and crashed a staggering six times there. He also crashed in Hungary, taking his team-mate Bezzecchi down with him, amongst others. Nevertheless, he remains one of the big favourites because he consistently manages to score points, even when he doesn’t win.

Marc Marquez is struggling – probably for good

Marquez lies 19 points behind. Pretty much everything has already been said about him. But at 33, his body is battered and weakened following a whole series of operations on his right shoulder and right arm. He will probably never regain his full strength – a disadvantage on circuits that are predominantly right-handed. And that applies to all but two of the remaining nine circuits.

Marc Marquez verlässt Aragon als WM-Zweiter

Foto: Gold & Goose

Bezzecchi, winner of the first three Sunday races – and the last two of last year – is just a further five points behind. This creates an interesting dynamic within the Aprilia works team, which has made such significant technical progress this year that it has overtaken the long-dominant Ducati. Your team-mate is always your biggest rival, so he and Martin will be taking points off each other in the coming races. To the benefit of the others.

Fourth place is held by Fabio Di Giannantonio on the next-best Ducati, who has won one race so far. He is 24 points behind Bezzecchi and 48 behind the championship leader. His chances are dwindling. Especially given his results. He has just one win, in Catalonia, in a race where both Marquez brothers were absent, Martin crashed and Bezzecchi was off form. But it’s still possible.

If the numbers add up, why not? This line of thinking brings us to the next contender – the surprise package, Ai Ogura. The Japanese rider is only behind Di Giannantonio – by a mere three points – because he missed the most recent race at Aragon due to a crash in practice that left him with a broken thumb.

The former Moto2 world champion, riding an Aprilia for a satellite team, has been a revelation in his second year. He was already known for his strong pace in the closing stages of a race. Some put this down to the fact that he was conserving his tyres with slow opening laps. But over the course of the season, he has got his qualifying problems and those slow opening laps under control – and he’s still quick at the end. In Brno, he even put Marquez under pressure in the battle for victory, coming within a few tenths of a second of him.

For a rider in his second season, it’s a daunting task to beat the seasoned veterans ahead of him. Yet one win and three podium finishes are strong arguments in his favour. And wouldn’t it be amusing…

Acosta and Fernández with underdog chances

Two other riders are still within reasonable striking distance. Pedro Acosta, regarded as the next Marc Marquez, is a further 14 points behind and trails the leader by 67 points. His talent is beyond question. His disadvantage is a KTM that isn’t competitive enough, on which he sometimes outperforms his team-mates so significantly that it seems almost absurd – especially as they include former MotoGP winners and world champions from lower classes such as Brad Binder, Enea Bastianini and Maverick Viñales. But is his determination enough to overcome a difficult bike and a massive points deficit?

Marc Marquez und Pedro Acosta: 2026 im gleichen Outfit

Foto: Gold and Goose

And finally, just within the realm of possibility, Ogura’s Trackhouse Aprilia team-mate Raul Fernandez. Despite his rather inconsistent form, he has still managed two sprint wins and one GP victory, leaving him just three points behind Acosta.

Place your bets now.

My heart says Marc Marquez. And so does my head. But what do I know? After all, the late Soichiro Honda once told me: ‘If we knew who was going to win, there’d be no point in holding the race in the first place.’