Did Mercedes’ miscalculation cost Kimi Antonelli his chance of victory in Austria?

Championship leader Kimi Antonelli was hard on himself following the entertaining, traditional Austrian Grand Prix. The 19-year-old Italian said: “I was a bit over-eager in the first few laps; I really didn’t drive well then – far too many mistakes.”

“I struggled with the brakes; the brake pedal felt long and I didn’t have the right feel for them, but that’s no excuse. I lost places and certainly four to five seconds through my own fault.”

“After the tyre change, I got into my stride better and finally found a good rhythm. Towards the end, I finally found my pace, but unfortunately I arrived at the party up front a little too late.”

What the teenager from Bologna doesn’t say: one of the reasons he joined the party a little late was Mercedes’ race strategy.

Let’s rewind: on lap 42, Russell was a second ahead of Verstappen and seven ahead of Antonelli. Mercedes wanted to protect itself against Red Bull Racing cutting the lap time – if the pursuer pits earlier, then sets a very fast pace on fresh tyres, and the leader suddenly finds himself at the back after his own pit stop.

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So Russell pitted on lap 43, which made it clear that the Briton would have to drive a long final stint, requiring clever tyre management. Verstappen took the opposite approach: staying out longer to have fresher tyres at the end.

Mercedes also kept Antonelli out longer – even longer than Verstappen. That cost Kimi around three seconds. But when the chequered flag fell, the Italian was just three tenths of a second behind Max and less than two seconds behind winner Russell.

Would Antonelli have had a chance of winning here with a different strategy? Answer: most likely yes. Because in the final stages of the race, it was striking how Antonelli was not only the fastest man on the track, but there was also hardly any tyre wear visible on his Mercedes. The clever minds at Mercedes probably hadn’t factored that in.

To put it another way: had he made his final tyre change three or four laps earlier, Antonelli wouldn’t have arrived at the party too late – he would probably have been the talk of the party.

Of course, conspiracy theorists will spin this into a theory that Mercedes wanted to prevent a risky head-to-head battle between Russell and Antonelli. That remains pure speculation.

The fact, however, is this: with a slightly different approach, we could well have witnessed an even more thrilling finale.